Unrealistic targets double the build rate, threaten greenfields and ignore affordable homes and local infrastructure, says CPRE’s Rupert Hardy
Labour swept to power this summer determined to solve Britain’s housing crisis … but is that crisis the same everywhere? We would argue that the Government is setting totally exaggerated and unrealistic housing targets for Dorset Council.
The build rate in Dorset would have to more than double, as the Government seeks to shift house building from big cities, where most of the brownfield sites are, to greenfield sites in the countryside – a misguided policy.
We also suggest that the proposed target won’t achieve key goals. It would neither bring down house prices nor address the shortfall of truly affordable housing and lack of social or low-rent housing. All the towns and larger villages in Dorset could be earmarked for new, large developments too, threatening the county’s exceptional environment, especially in North Dorset, which has a smaller proportion than other parts of the county within Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONBs, now National Landscapes) which have some degree of protection.
Key issues highlighted by North Dorset CPRE:
Unrealistic targets: We dispute the feasibility of Dorset Council’s (DC) new housing target, which, according to the Government’s formula, would require the number of new homes to increase from the current 1,310 to 3,230 annually. This target is significantly higher than the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) projected household growth of 1,212 per year, driven mainly by net in-migration of older residents. It is also much higher than the 1,793 homes annually figure proposed in the draft Local Plan, which was much criticised in the 2021 consultation.
The new government formula calculates housing need only by looking at prices and incomes – a rather crude and simplistic approach compared with the standard method used by the Conservative government, which was in itself flawed.
Supply chain constraints: Such high targets are far beyond the available supply of building materials and skilled labour.
Demand and finance challenges: There is no evidence in Dorset that planning constraints are the main barrier to house building. There are currently 11,060 plots with permission in Dorset waiting to be built. Additionally, buyers with the necessary financial resources required are lacking.
House prices: Contrary to public perception, large housebuilding targets do not lead to a decrease in house prices: indeed they may have the opposite effect if developers look to buy more land. When prices start to fall, developers slow down rather than sell cheaply. The main factors behind house prices are the availability of finance and the level of interest rates.
- Risk of harmful development: Dorset allocating land for 48,450 homes, plus a potential 10,000 allowance for overspill from Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole, could force planners to approve unsustainable Green Belt and greenfield sites.
- Environmental and climate change: Higher housing numbers may have an adverse impact on air pollution, carbon footprints, loss of natural habitats, reduction in ecological pathways and biodiversity, and, in Dorset specifically, nitrogen and phosphorus pollution in Poole Harbour.
- Traffic congestion, local infrastructure and public transport: Everyone in North Dorset has noticed the increase in traffic in recent years, driven mostly by new car-dependent housing. This has an adverse impact on the local economy in lost hours, exacerbated by the lack of public transport. Just imagine the gridlock we will see if the government’s housing targets are implemented. Labour has no announced plans yet to solve the critical lack of local infrastructure. Blandford and Shaftesbury only have one doctors’ surgery each.
- An alternative approach: CPRE would prefer realistic, achievable housing targets, based on local data detailing household growth and current home completions as well as affordability. Affordability should be addressed directly by investment in social rent homes. The Centre for Economics and Business Research published a report in February 2024 showing the cost-benefit of building 90,000 social rent homes nationally. It calculated that the long-term benefits far outweighed the costs by more than £50bn, thanks to reduced homelessness, increased employment and savings on healthcare, among others. Subsidising new social rent homes would pay a handsome return for society and the economy.
DC deeply critical of government policy
Dorset CPRE hopes to work alongside DC, which is very critical of government policy, to develop appropriate responses. A senior DC housing policy officer spoke at 10th September cabinet meeting, responding to the question: “Do you have any additional comments on the proposed method for assessing housing needs?”:
‘The figures that the method generates need to be realistic. The figure for Dorset (3,230) is nearly twice the average annual completion rate, and in our view is not a realistic target given the constrained nature of Dorset, its lack of major industry and employment, and relatively poor transport connections.
‘We consider moving completions towards the current standard method target (c.1,800 dpa) to be a realistic challenge.
‘National targets, both the previous 300,000 a year – which has only very rarely been met, and only in the days when half of the completions were council housing – and the proposed 370,000 a year, are not based on evidence of need and are not justified. Targets based on more accurate evidence of need, including population growth, net migration and evidence of “hidden households”, would provide a sounder basis for explaining to local communities why additional housing is necessary.’
The next few years are going to be difficult, and it will take time for realism to permeate government thinking, but in the meantime, talk to your local Dorset councillor and protest to your local MP. We may have an affordable housing crisis, which we addressed at our Affordable Housing Crisis conference in May, but it will not be solved by concreting over our beautiful countryside.
Dorset is worth protecting!
